Deep roots of rebellion tracked from the Great Irish Famine to the Irish Revolutionary period

Posted on: 02 March 2023

Irish rebels who revolted against British rule were more likely to come from families and locations most affected by the Great Irish Famine, according to new research from economic historians.

The study, entitled ‘The Deep Roots of Rebellion’, employed methodologies from the field of economics to measure the impact of the Great Irish Famine (1845-50).  

By combining climatic data and apolitical factors such as soil quality and wind direction with contemporary historical reports and Irish census records the researchers measured how exposed Irish families were to the Famine and how likely individuals were to participate in rebellion two generations later.

In an analysis of over 2.7 million historical data points, researchers found strong evidence that individuals whose families had suffered during the Famine were more likely to take up arms two generations later and rebel during the Irish revolutionary period (1916-21). 

Aside from shedding fresh light on the deep roots of Irish rebellion, the research furthers our understanding of how large radical historical events can explain social unrest generations later.

The research was conducted by Dr Gaia Narciso, Director of the Centre for Economics, Policy and History, Department of Economics, Trinity, in collaboration with Dr Battista Severgnini, Associate Professor, Copenhagen Business School and was recently published in a paper in the Journal of Development Economics.

Dr Gaia Narciso, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Trinity, said:

“The wealth of historical data available in the 1911 Census and other historical records allowed us to measure how each family name in Ireland was exposed to the Great Famine. We investigate the distribution of surnames over space and time to track how rebellion animosity lingered over generations.

“The novel use of econometric methodologies in the analysis of these historical data allows us to stand back from individual historical narratives to better understand the long-term effects of the Great Irish Famine. 

“We show that individuals whose families had been most affected by the Irish Famine were more likely to participate in the rebellion against British rule during the revolutionary period, over 70 years after the Famine.”

The research exemplifies the work being carried out in the newly established Centre for Economics, Policy and History, funded by the Higher Education Authority under the North-South programme. Based at Trinity and Queen’s University Belfast, the new Centre combines economics with history to answer historical questions about the long-run development of society. 

Dr Battista Severgnini, Associate Professor, Copenhagen Business School, added:

“The Irish Famine, caused by potato blight, was one of the biggest tragedies of modern history, resulting in the death of 1 million people due to starvation and related diseases, and the emigration of a further 1 million people out of a population of 8.5 million people. Although the impact of the Great Irish Famine was immediate, historical evidence suggests that politically motivated rebellion smouldered under the surface for several years after.”

“Social unrest and civil conflicts are usually studied ex-post, making it hard to disentangle the short and long term factors that trigger an individual’s decision to rebel. This is the first study internationally that highlights the role of large adverse shocks in explaining social unrest in the long run.

Research methodology:

This research uses an innovative method to measure the impact of the Famine. It considers climatic and apolitical factors such as soil quality and wind direction to determine the damage done by potato blight in a specific area. This can then be incorporated with more traditional historical metrics such as excess mortality, official contemporary reports of blight, and the extent of potato crop failure to provide a complete picture of the long run impact of the Famine. 

This analysis is then combined with research based on the information contained in the 1911 Irish Census. The database provides an exceptional insight at the individual and household level shortly before the start of the Irish revolutionary era. By linking these data with the lists of known rebels, primarily provided by the Irish Military Archives, a portrait of insurgents in early twentieth-century Ireland can be created which considers their place of birth, gender, age, religion, marital status and more.

The research was funded by Trinity through the Pathfinder programme and the Arts and Social Sciences Benefactions Fund. It has also been supported by the Irish Research Council through its New Foundations scheme. 

The full paper ‘The deep roots of rebellion’, Journal of Development Economics, Vol 160, can be read at this link.

*Image: The Discovery of the Potato Blight by Daniel MacDonald (1847). National Folklore Collection UCD

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